The State of Ads, Marketing & Media
Here’s your no-BS, high-signal tour through what’s actually moving the industry right now: from agency shake-ups and streaming ad math to cookie chaos, AI’s land-grab, retail media, and the rule makers rewriting the playbook.
1) The Money: Forecasts, Flow, and Fragility
- 2025 growth is slower but still positive. MAGNA cut its global ad growth outlook to +4.9% ($979B), citing softer macro and lower business confidence; recovery toward >+6% is expected in 2026 as big events kick in. MAGNAMarketing DiveTheWrap
- GroupM trimmed too, now seeing ~+6% to $1.08T in 2025, with digital at ~73% share; creator-driven platforms are on pace to overtake “old media” on content-based ad revenue this year. ReutersBusiness Insider
- Dentsu pegs 2025 global ad spend growth at +4.9% to $992B, with retail media +13.9% and social +9.2% leading digital’s +7.9% rise. dentsu+1
So what? Budgets aren’t collapsing—but they’re getting more algorithmic, more retail-media-led, and more accountability-hungry.
2) Agencies: From “Big Network” to “AI-First”
- WPP’s shock reset. Interim dividend halved; pre-tax profits down ~71% in H1. Mark Read out; Microsoft’s Cindy Rose in, with a full strategic review and heavier AI spend (WPP Open). Expect consolidation, margin protection, and tougher capital discipline. Financial TimesThe TimesThe Wall Street Journal
- The pain is macro + mix: clients slower to brief, in-housing pressure, and AI commoditizing workflow. (WPP also flagged revenue declines and impairment charges.) Financial Times
- Omnicom is the counter-narrative: Q2 revenue $4.0B, 3% organic growth, with media/ads leading; beats expectations and reiterates AI-driven ops. Omnicom Group Investor RelationsReuters
So what? “Holding company” is being redefined: fewer brands, more platform ops, heavier partnerships with cloud/AI providers—and every CFO wants faster working-media ratios.
3) Streaming & CTV: The Center of Gravity
- Streaming is the majority of TV time in the U.S.: ~47% share in July, outpacing cable + broadcast combined (~40.6%). YouTube holds ~14% share alone. TheDesk.net
- Nielsen’s earlier May read had streaming at 44.8%—and the line keeps drifting up. Reuters
- Netflix ads are scaling fast. The ad tier surged from 40M MAUs (May ’24) to ~94M by mid-’25, with new AI-assisted ad formats to blend spots into viewing moments. (Translation: more inventory, more yield tools.) NetflixThe VergeBusiness InsiderAInvest
So what? CTV is now the default reach machine; creative + attention + shoppable overlays are the performance unlocks.
4) Cookies, Privacy & Measurement: The Great Re-wiring
- Chrome’s third-party-cookie deprecation remains in limbo. The UK CMA scrutiny and industry pushback on Privacy Sandbox (latency, yield, auction quirks) have slowed Google’s timeline yet again; marketers should plan for a prolonged hybrid world (IDs + first-party + Sandbox). CookieYesMintAdExchanger
- EU’s DMA/DSA enforcement is real. April rulings hit Apple (€500M) and Meta (€200M); the Commission is also pressing Google and others on self-preferencing and ad data use. Expect design changes that ripple into attribution and app/commerce flows. The Wall Street JournalEuropean CommissionThe Guardian
- FTC keeps the heat on endorsements. Influencer disclosures remain strict, with penalties per violation and renewed attention on hidden fees and “dark patterns.” Federal Trade Commissionluthor.aiSimpson Thacher & Bartlett
So what? Build for consented identity, clean rooms, MMM, and durable reach in walled gardens. Treat Sandbox as an optimization layer—not a single point of failure.
5) Retail Media: Still Steep, Still Fragmented
- Amazon Ads continues to outgrow retail; Walmart Connect and Instacart expand offsite and in-store signals; forecasts have retail media up ~14% in ’25—the fastest major channel. dentsu
- Playbook shift: retailers are bundling CTV (Roku/Prime Video/YouTube), in-store networks, and closed-loop sales to win national dollars—not just trade funds.
So what? Treat retail media as a full-funnel system: audience build (retailer IDs), CTV reach, and clean-room sales proof.
6) AI Everywhere: From Creative to Buying to Ops
- Google Ads (PMax) added long-requested brand controls, audience tools, and granular reporting—finally easing the “black box” complaints. blog.googleGoogle HelpSearch Engine Journal+1
- Meta is leaning hard into gen-AI creative (image/video generation, background swaps, copy variants) and labeling for AI-made ad assets. FacebookMetaSocial Media Today
- Meta x Midjourney. A late-summer deal to license Midjourney’s “aesthetic tech” underscores how competitive the gen-AI creative stack has become. ReutersFinancial Times
- Adobe Firefly + Google Gemini integration makes rapid asset generation and resizing even more accessible to marketers and social teams. Lifewire
- YouTube’s AI creative helpers (Dream Screen and more) keep shortening production cycles for Shorts and ads. AIR
So what? AI is collapsing time-to-creative and testing cycles. The edge goes to teams that couple fast varianting with tighter brand rules and incrementality testing.
7) Social, Creators & Commerce: The Cultural Engine
- Creator platforms are crossing the revenue Rubicon. WPP’s mid-year view: 2025 is the year creator-driven platforms (YouTube, TikTok, LinkedIn, etc.) surpass traditional media on content-based ad revenue; creator earnings could double by 2030. Business Insider
- Social commerce keeps threading into ad stacks (click-to-cart, affiliate pipes, shop tabs). The practical win-state: SKU-level ROAS with creator content at scale.
So what? Shift more brand dollars into creator operating systems (briefing → production → whitelisting → commerce), not just one-off influencer posts.
8) What Smart Marketers Are Doing (Right Now)
- Re-balance mixes toward CTV/YouTube + retail media + creators, while keeping search upper-funnel with video and creator intent capture.
- Build durable identity: consented emails/phone hashes, retail IDs, and clean-room matchbacks.
- Instrument for incrementality: always-on geo/cell tests, MMM refreshes, and attention metrics on CTV/online video.
- Industrialize AI: a creative “factory” (human taste + AI scale), strict brand guardrails, and QA for disclosures/labels.
- Agency strategy: if you’re big—rationalize rosters and demand platform-grade ops; if you’re small—specialize (retail media, CTV craft, cultural collabs) and partner up.
9) Headlines to Watch
- WPP’s strategy review under Cindy Rose (consolidation? asset sales? cloud/AI alliances?). The Wall Street Journal
- Cookie endgame: CMA’s verdicts and any fresh Chrome timelines. CookieYes
- DMA enforcement waves (Google search UX, app ecosystems, ad transparency)—watch knock-on effects for SEO/ASO and UA. The GuardianTruth on the Market
- Netflix/YouTube ad tech: AI-paced ad insertion, shoppable overlays, and sports rights (live ramps inventory + sponsorships). The VergeTheDesk.net

TL;DR
Spend is growing—just not as fast. The center of gravity is streaming + retail + creators, measured with first-party/retailer IDs and optimized by AI. Big networks are retooling; agile specialists with platform-native craft and clean-room math are winning share.










